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Mina

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So why all the hype over the iPhone? well rewind to the 2001 ipod release. In comparison it had considerably less press coverage, nothing like it had come before, but in retrospect the ipod flourished, delivering generation after generation, continually innovating in form features integration and UI.

So fast forward 6 years, the spotlight is now very much on Apple to do it again. Little has changed, Apple is still a close nit group isolated from the pack. With the iphone being a potentially major turing point for Apple let's fast forward 4 years with two hindsights for 2011.

1.The iPhone created huge excitement in 2007, and with it captured 15 million users, more than predicted. Those who had previously only used Apple computers turn to the iPhone to complete the Apple experience. New generations of iPhone draw in more and more sales as complaints with older models are addressed by both Apple and At&t. With iPhone 2G under their belt owners of the 1G jump on the release of the 3G in 2011, creating an all time sales high as new customers and old pitch in and buy the newest model, with its comparatively improved features and form to the original.

2. In 2007 Apple embraces technologies too ahead of its time for its own good. Apple's integration with international telecommunication networks at the time failed to be as seamless as they'd hoped, leaving customers unable to fully exploit the iPhone's internet and googlemap features with slow data transfer. Apple's partnership with At&t becomes heated as demands for innovations in the networks themselves are left unanswered, Apple grows tired of constantly pulling At&t along with innovation and Apple compromises heavily with its next generation, the iPhone 2G. The phone industry refuses to work on future iPhone generations on an agenda set by Apple. International press prey like never before on iPhone customer complaints and the troubled partnerships, creating huge press coverage over Apple's 'failure' to meet the iPods success with a product that is "all talk and no walk". In 2011, due to dwindling sales and press, and other networks reluctant to partner, Apple phases out the iPhone with the indefinite halt on iPhone 3G manufacture.

Unrealistic? Who really cares? Just my $0.2
 

Germansuplex

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This is in many ways reminicsent of the PS3: a capable machine with features and pricing being heavily scrutinized.

Sony came from behind to overtake Nintendo, and I think people were surprised and pleased to see a competitor that really shook up the industry. Fast foward to the PS3, and while essentially this is a decent machine, people are really coming down hard on Sony (and were before the machine was released). Sure, there are problems, but no moreso than with the PS2 (people though $299 was an astronomical price). I think in some ways, similar things are happening with Apple. The Apple brand has become pretty strong and the iPod name synonymous with portable music players, so people want to bring the hype of the iPhone down a bit. That's not to say that there aren't legitimate gripes and concerns, but I just see a lot of parallels between Apple/the iPhone and Sony/PS3.

I think this is going to be a decent gadget, and while how revolutionary it will be remains to be seen, I do think it will, at the very least, set the standard in at least a few key areas: design, interface, etc. Something could come along (or possibly already be out) that tops the iPhone as an overall experience, but I think the list of those items or soon-to-be items is very short. Then again, we could all be wrong and this could be the most revolutionary cell phone to date. There could be features added to it we can't speculate about right now. I do see the relatively low-end storage being a problem, but it's something easily fixed (although not to the dismay of early users, especially if higher-capacity models are announced within months of the original release this June).

The pricing is a bit on the high-side, especially if it is going to create problems for current Cingular/AT&T customers who want one, but $599 for the top end model doesn't seem outrageous either. The real question is how much extra on top of the phone and monthly service will I have to pay to activate the features of the iPhone. I can't see myself paying extra for visual voicemail. I can't see the market that this phone is aiming at paying extra for it either.

I certainly want one. In this day of ever-evolving electronic gizmos though, we're always ahead of ourselves. As soon as we have something, we want it done better right away. That's the biggest hurdle the iPhone faces, I think.
 

Nader172

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Apple may take the heat when the average consumer hears or sees the price of the iPhone. I don't think the average Joe will be getting the iPhone mostly because they can get another phone for cheap. Not everyone cares about the internet or the iPod features, and I think the price will be holding back the product for the most part. However, the original iPod was expensive too. Look at all the iPods you have today? I cannot go down the hallway at school and not see someone with an iPod in their hands.

I dunno, there is a good chance I may be wrong. The iPhone just seems like a risky move for Apple.
 

Surf Monkey

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The price differential between iPod and it's rivals at the time of its launch was not as significant as the difference between iPhone and its rivals. There was no discount program for MP3 players (and still isn't) like there is with phones today. You can say that similar smart phones cost as much as iPhone but you'd be wrong. The MSRP of a typical smart phone is not what you actually pay for that device. When combined with discounts in combination with new service, similarly priced smart phones end up costing the consumer far less than iPhone. When iPod came out similar MP3 players (offerings from Arcos in particular) cost as much or more than iPod.
 
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loramarthalas

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What everyone needs to remember is that in a few years, when phones all have gigabyte capacity and functional music players, is that iPods will slowly become redundant. Apple is covering their future ### by releasing the iPhone. Maybe the iPhone isn't great right now, maybe it's expensive, but give it a few years and it will be the best option by a long way.
 

Pikemann_Urge

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I don't like the comparisons to the PS3: after all, like with MP3 players and computers, a phone is not dependent on the vendor for software. If games consoles were like MP3 players you'd have millions of games available for them - before they even launched!

I don't mind loramarthalas' idea at all, but convergence is really a niche. Specialized gadgets always do their job better than multi-function devices. Some people can't even fit their whole music collection on an 80GB iPod, let alone an 8GB iPhone.
 

Mina

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Well it looks like Apple thinks convergence devices are the way to go. You'll begin to see standard full screen screen devices across the board that allow for a variety of features, and the quality of the device wont depend on the hardware, just the software. These days why should we be limited by hardware such as keyboards, when we can create virtual keyboards we can stretch or shrink on a screen, or get rid of completely and make an interface that is completely intuitive and requires no manual. Apple are embracing this because they're a software company, it falls right into their hands. Jack of all trades master of none will be a thing of the past.
 
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Pikemann_Urge

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Mina said:
Jack of all trades master of none will be a thing of the past.
Actually I disagree. But not because it can't be done. No, it certainly can be done. The point is that dedicated devices are extremelly flexible. By virtue of being separate devices this allows flexibility - you can use your phone or VCR or camera while someone else is using your iPod, for example. And if your iPod needs repair you can still use your phone.

Multi-function devices are not bad things. The camera in your phone can't replace a dedicated camera, but it sure can enhance the phone. But convergence not, in most cases, the best solution.
 

Germansuplex

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Pikemann_Urge said:
I don't like the comparisons to the PS3: after all, like with MP3 players and computers, a phone is not dependent on the vendor for software. If games consoles were like MP3 players you'd have millions of games available for them - before they even launched!

I don't mind loramarthalas' idea at all, but convergence is really a niche. Specialized gadgets always do their job better than multi-function devices. Some people can't even fit their whole music collection on an 80GB iPod, let alone an 8GB iPhone.
I was comparing the reaction to the products and companies (Sony and Apple) more than I was comparing the products themselves. It just feels like attitudes toward the iPhone before it's release are similar to the PS3's before it's release, and I've got a strong feeling the post-release reaction to the iPhone will be similar.
 

mjmoonwalker

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loramarthalas said:
What everyone needs to remember is that in a few years, when phones all have gigabyte capacity and functional music players, is that iPods will slowly become redundant. Apple is covering their future ### by releasing the iPhone. Maybe the iPhone isn't great right now, maybe it's expensive, but give it a few years and it will be the best option by a long way.
Personally, I think it'll be a Newton of tomorrow. It's too ahead of its time.

I think it'll be a bit more than a few years before all cell phones have gigabyte capacity - especially considering that the majority of people switch phones only every few years, and the current offerings barely even have 1GB of capacity, let alone a good and functional music player, which IMHO has only been nearly perfected by Sony.
 

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If I'm being honest, I'm *** years old and have grown up in the era of technology and gadgets, and in my opinion the iPhone is the best invention I've ever seen. I am amazed and almost get shivers every time I think of it. The satellite images, the iPod, the touchscreen. This is something that was created 35+ years after the computer (just a guess). Video games will burn out, and no one will care. I've already lost interest in them and I was an avid gamer. I would rather give the money to charity than to buy a new console.

Phones and videogames are in a completely different league. Whereas someone may grow out of or feel too old to game (and its being shown by the rapid decline of video game console sales) you are never too old to talk on the phone. I think that the iPhone is very expensive, but in a couple years it will come right down. It is genius, and I can't believe something like it was created in my lifetime.
 

paranoidxe

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Video Games aren't going anywhere, you find when you get older you can't play them not because you don't want to because you don't have time anymore.

The iPhone seems to be aimed at geeks, I see it being successful but not overwhelming successful like the iPod has been. Music/Videos have proven time and time again to not go good with a phone.
 

loramarthalas

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kylo4 said:
Phones and videogames are in a completely different league. Whereas someone may grow out of or feel too old to game (and its being shown by the rapid decline of video game console sales) you are never too old to talk on the phone.

You must be kidding, right? With games in phones, on iPods, with the Wii and DS Lite? Games are selling more than they ever have in history. The casual gaming market is growing exponentially. I catch a train everyday here in Japan and I see dozens of people, women, old men, kids, playing with DS lites, and on their phones. I honestly think games are becoming one of the primary forms of entertainment. Look at World of Warcraft -- 6,000,000 players worlwide. That's more than the number of people who watch The O.C.! (about 4,000,000 when it was axed)

I could go on about how there are now 3 big selling consoles, about how the vidoe games industry makes more money than the movie industry, about how there are whole markets that are only just being pried open (women, old folks) by the DS and Wii, but I wont.

Your comments are short sighted at best.
 

Nader172

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loramarthalas said:
What everyone needs to remember is that in a few years, when phones all have gigabyte capacity and functional music players, is that iPods will slowly become redundant. Apple is covering their future ### by releasing the iPhone. Maybe the iPhone isn't great right now, maybe it's expensive, but give it a few years and it will be the best option by a long way.
That was a great post and I never thought about that. Now that I think about it, it all makes sense. Nobody can predict the future exactly how it will end up, but we can get a good idea on how todays electronics can give a positive impact on tomorrows electronics and innovations.

In the future when the cellphones have gigabyte capabilities, Apple can point to the iPhone and say that was an important mark in the making.

If my post does not make any sense whatsoever, that just means that I cannot write posts while listening to music. ;)
 

Mina

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Pikemann_Urge said:
Multi-function devices are not bad things. The camera in your phone can't replace a dedicated camera, but it sure can enhance the phone. But convergence not, in most cases, the best solution.
Take the pc for instance, it does graphic editing, type editing, stores photographs, music and video, and also does instant messeging. Businesses were perfectly happy typewriting letters and storing files on paper until the personal computer came along that did all those things and more. I'm happy to admit the iphone will never replace high end cameras, though it may eventually replace all specific role portables such as dvd, mp3, PDA devices and mobile phones.
 

kylo4

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loramarthalas said:
You must be kidding, right? With games in phones, on iPods, with the Wii and DS Lite? Games are selling more than they ever have in history. The casual gaming market is growing exponentially. I catch a train everyday here in Japan and I see dozens of people, women, old men, kids, playing with DS lites, and on their phones. I honestly think games are becoming one of the primary forms of entertainment. Look at World of Warcraft -- 6,000,000 players worlwide. That's more than the number of people who watch The O.C.! (about 4,000,000 when it was axed)

I could go on about how there are now 3 big selling consoles, about how the vidoe games industry makes more money than the movie industry, about how there are whole markets that are only just being pried open (women, old folks) by the DS and Wii, but I wont.

Your comments are short sighted at best.
Actually, video game console sales have decreased drastically. PS2 sold 115 million units. 1 million in the first week. PS3 has sold only 1.61 million worldwide so far. Quite the difference isn't it? Also, x-Box 360 has been out for over a year and has only sold 10 million, way below expectations. There are 300 million people that live in America alone. That's poor sales. The first x-box sold 24 million. Sony lost so much money that they might not be able to make another console. So please, don't tell me that gaming isn't slowly dying.
 
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loramarthalas

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kylo4 said:
Actually, video game console sales have decreased drastically. PS2 sold 115 million units. 1 million in the first week. PS3 has sold only 1.61 million worldwide so far. Quite the difference isn't it? Also, x-Box 360 has been out for over a year and has only sold 10 million, way below expectations. There are 300 million people that live in America alone. That's poor sales. The first x-box sold 24 million. Sony lost so much money that they might not be able to make another console. So please, don't tell me that gaming isn't slowly dying.

Did you even read my post? If you combine the sales of the PSP, the xbox360, the DS lite, the Wii and the PS3, you'll find that there are a hell of a lot of people gaming these days. The thing is, there's more variety. No longer just Sega and Nintendo. Combine them all together and you'll get a more accurate picture of the gaming market. And, the first xbox was a lot cheaper than the new one. So too with the PS2 and PS3. A higher price will always mean lower sales figures. So comparing old consoles to new ones is a mistake. Sony might be losing money, but Nintendo made a billion dollar profit last year by releasing a reasonably priced console and portable gaming unit.

Gaming is one of the fastest growing entertainment sectors there is. I wasn't lying when I said that gaming makes more money globally than movies. So are movies 'dying' too?

If you really want to count the number of gaming devices sold, we should start with the most common kind; the cell phone. 1,000,000,000 sold last year alone.

Anyone who thinks gaming is dying has their head stuck well and truly in the sand.
 
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loramarthalas

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And this is from Gamespot.com. Just to prove my point.

"When hardware, software, and accessories sales are combined, the total US gaming market for the year amounted to $12.5 billion, a 19 percent jump over 2005's $10.5 billion, which was the previous highest grossing year in US gaming. December alone saw the industry bring in $3.7 billion, 27.8 percent more than the $2.9 billion it brought in for December 2005. The figures did not include sales of PC games, PC game subscriptions, or downloaded content."

Gaming is dying? Tell that to the CEO's counting their billions. Notice these figures don't include online subscriptions, and considering the World of Warcraft has 8.5 million subscribers as of Feb 2007, that's a lot of money not included.
 
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