Pikemann_Urge said:
But it won't be MS who is going to dislodge it.
That's not a bet I would make.
First off, you've got the lack of hardware manufacturers even in the game anymore. Creative keeps going backwards and forwards with their DAP designs because they can only stand hemmorrhaging money for so many consecutive quarters. If not for a decent Asian market and the padding they get from their sound card and speaker business, Creative would probably already be out of the North American and European market. iRiver has all but given up with only the Clix carrying a small torch after the mostly failed MTV promotion. Cowon doesn't even try to compete in these markets in spite of some decent players. Sony, Samsung, Panasonic, etc. all are players in a technical sense, but they can't even chart as far as market share is concerned. That leaves Sansa as the only real competitor other than MS for the North American market.
Second, and it's the real reason I'm not making that bet is that the only reason Apple has managed to get as big as they are is iTunes. If the iPod were just another drag and drop or Windows Media Player supported DAP, it wouldn't be doing any better than anyone else no matter how cute and pretty Apple styled them. If there's one thing Microsoft is willing to do, it's tool and retool software until it either beats or copies the competition. I don't think it's an accident they opted to give the Zune players their own software instead of WMP. They'll support WMP because they have to, but if there's going to be any break throughs for ease of library management, expect it in the Zune software first. Microsoft has the bank account and the software development experience (plus the ethically dubious tie in with their OS) to become real competitors to iTunes for player and library managment. *That* is something that Creative and Sony have shown themselves completely inept at, and the others simply aren't even interested in.
Albeit, if the Zune 2.0 requires Vista, they'll probably shoot themselves in the foot for this generation as well since there's absolutely nothing about a DAP that should require the bells and whistles of an OS most of us are probably still about a year away from adopting.
In the long run, it's probably only Microsoft that can afford to not be a success through multiple generations of their music players. They've got the resources to both stand the tests of the market, but also to keep retooling everything as many times as is necessary to achieve what the market is looking for no matter how good or bad the previous iteration was received. It may not topple Apple, but I'd be surprised if it doesn't put them in the number two spot within a few years.